Red Alert series examines the potential of military action involving Australia by 2026 

A complacent Australian population and unprepared defence force could have catastrophic results if fears of a war with China within three years are realised, reveals a landmark new investigation by The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

The three-part subscriber series Red Alert – led by political and international editor Peter Hartcher and foreign affairs and national security correspondent Matthew Knott – draws on the views of five respected panellists whose expertise spans military strategy, defence policy, cyber, geopolitics and technology.

They examine the most pressing national security challenges facing Australia, including the consequences of our nation’s political leaders refusing to be frank with the public about the dire threats the nation faces. All agree that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would result in war, potentially as early as 2026. 

The series comes at arguably the most significant moment in Australian defence policy since World War II, with the federal government set to release its response to the defence strategic review as well as reveal the type of submarine technology it will acquire under the AUKUS pact. 

Using innovative graphics and interactive storytelling, the Red Alert series will run across Nine’s mastheads The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Brisbane Times and WAToday from Tuesday, March 7, culminating in a joint written communique including recommendations for action. While all panellists want peace, they said we need to prepare for the possibility of imminent war.

The five respected experts – former senior Defence Department official Peter Jennings, Macquarie University senior lecturer in strategic studies and criminology Lavina Lee, former chief scientist of Australia Alan Finkel, National Institute of Strategic Resilience chair Lesley Seebeck and retired Army major general Mick Ryan – all met in person over nearly two days to examine a range of scenarios and to determine whether Australia is ready for war.  

“War and peace are the biggest decisions a country can make,” said Peter Hartcher. “We all live here and pay taxes here – we all have a lot at stake.

“The government will soon announce its big defence strategic review. But their review is not independent and most of its real thinking will be kept secret.

“We’ve brought together five eminent experts. They’ve given us an independent insight into our future, problems and solutions. It’s sometimes fascinating, disturbing, and motivating. It’s honest and it’s fearless.”

With the world’s ammunition stocks and military hardware fast being consumed by war in Ukraine, the panel reveals that an opportunistic grab for Taiwan could result in 200,000 US troops pouring into Australia as Chinese missiles attack our military facilities and cyber attacks on critical infrastructure become the new battlefield. 

“Neither the Australian military nor the public are presently truly prepared for the outbreak of war and Australia’s inevitable participation,” said panellist Lavina Lee, adding the biggest danger the nation faces is complacency rather than alarmism. “This means there is an absence of urgency about what needs to be done now.”

The executive editor of the Herald, The Age, Brisbane Times and WAToday, Tory Maguire, said few journalists could pull together such a high calibre panel of experts in the way Peter Hartcher and Matthew Knott have. 

“The findings and recommendations will resonate right through Australia’s highest levels of decision making, inside and outside the ADF,” Maguire said.

“It’s not an easy conversation to have, but it’s crucial we have it now and not leave it until after it’s too late. Properly funding Australia’s defences will come at a cost, and only a grown up analysis and debate will get us to where we need to be to ensure our future as a prosperous, lucky country.”

Three-part series Red Alert will begin Tuesday, March 7 in The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, Brisbane Times and WAToday.

For further information, please contact:
Adrian Motte
Senior Communications Manager – Trade & Publishing 
amotte@nine.com.au

Tuesday, March 7, 2023